7 Day Forecast and Tropical Update

12News Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn

Evening showers are expected to wind down just in time for Kickoff this evening across SE Texas.

Saturday, dry weather is expected with partly cloudy skies as a cold front arrives.

Sunday and Monday Mornings look cool with lows in the lower to middle 60s with pleasantly warm afternoons and no rain.

We're issuing WEATHER IMPACT ALERTS for Tuesday and Wednesday due to the potential for heavy rainfall and breezy winds. A tropical wave, currently over the Yucatan Peninsula, will move into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico Saturday. Sunday it may turn northwest and slowly organize. By Monday, it could develop into a depression or tropical storm as it head towards the Texas Coast. Ahead of the possible storm, there will be quite a bit of southwesterly wind shear over the state. So, if this does indeed forms and heads towards the South or Mid Texas Coast, it'll be on a weakening trend and will be quickly moving east after it moves ashore and not stall. This will spread likely rains over SE Texas Tuesday and Wednesday with the potential for several inches.

By Friday of next week, pretty typical weather is forecast with warm, humid conditions.

12News Meteorologist Kerry Cooper

Cold front continues to move through the region with breezy NNE winds. 60s tonight with highs in the 80s.

** THINGS WILL CHANGE UNTIL SOMETHING DEVELOPS** The 12Z ICON and GFS have shifted east with the POSSIBLE tropical system next Wednesday/Thursday. Like I said earlier nothing will be known until/if something develops. One thing i did notice The Ridge (Heat Dome) over Florida and the eastern Gulf was a little weaker than yesterday on this morning's run. So its not out of the question the Louisiana shift could happen, which would be the best news for us. Still a lot of data to look at this afternoon including Ensembles. Once again i wont know anything on future landfall until something develops. I'll have another update this afternoon.

Low pressure in the SW Gulf will merge with the Low heading south well offshore. There is a chance of Tropical development Monday in the western Gulf. Euro shows very little development (1st Graphic), GFS more robust (2nd graphic), EURO AI farther east, The Germany ICON upper Texas coast. It is TO EARLY to say how strong the system will be (even if it develops), or the final landfall on Wednesday/Thursday. We will know by Monday because nothing has even developed yet. We can expect heavy rain, and gusty winds by mid week UNLESS the EURO AI knows something that the other models don't. Right now it is the outlier along with the EURO not showing much development. I'll have another update this afternoon when all new model data arrives.

NOAA Tropical Outlook